Business committee cycle dating

It was much deeper than the closest contender in this timeframe, the 1973-1975 Oil Embargo recession.

While we've yet to set new highs, the trend has collectively been upward, although we have that strange anomaly caused by the late 2012 tax-planning strategy that impacted the Personal Income. Click for a larger image Industrial Production The US Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is the oldest of the four indicators, stretching back to 1919.

The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession).

The log scale of the first chart is particularly useful in showing the correlation between this indicator and early 20th century recessions.

Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments This data series is computed as by taking Personal Income (PI) less Personal Current Transfer Receipts (PCTR) and deflated using the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI).

The production at mines increased 1.4 percent following a gain of 2.0 percent in March.

At 102.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in April was 3.5 percent above its level of a year earlier.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions.

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